Does Space Have Influence on the Dynamic of Ethnogenesis?
Vasiliev E.V., Malkov A.S.

Studying development of ethnic systems in the different conditions is an important scientific task. The final aim of it is to define a more rational policy of states.

There are two states of the ethnic systems – equilibrium and non-equilibrium. Non-equilibrium ethnic system is a system in which there is a disbalance between different ethnic groups which causes intensive tensions and migrations. These factors lead to appearance of new ethnic systems which later come to equilibrium.

Previous research has established that a typical region of ethnic expansion lies within a narrow band about 200...300 km in width and more than 1 thousand km in length. This observation is curious, but rather dubious explanations have been proposed by now. For example, Gumilev connected this with the “passion” pushes which he considered to be a result of a mutation and that this mutation was supposed to be caused by an influence of space rays.

In our research, we both criticize such assumptions and propose a more realistic explanation of the phenomenon of long narrow regions of initial ethnic expansion. We analyze a hypothesis that connects expansion with sharp climate change and rapid (on historical scales) change of the climate areas. It leads to necessary changes of lifestyle. If people of the ethnos understand the threat and integrate, the ethnos will survive in the new conditions. We constructed a computer simulation of splash of non-equilibrium in the 6th millennium A.D in Europe. We use a map of Europe with a number of ethnic groups plotted there as initial data of our model. We assume that all ethnic groups are in the equal conditions at first. We set equations of changing of the activity for the whole of ethnic systems and launch our model. Then the isotherm of January is changed at the defined moment of time. There are appeared places of high level of activity at regions where abrupt change of the temperature occurred. These new ethnic systems start their development eliminating other ethnic groups. The geographical strip obtained as a result of modeling agrees with historical data.

Spatial Simulation of Warfare Based on D.S. Chernavsky and L.F. Richardson models
Stanislav V. Perov

This work is devoted to analysis of state evolution based on competition model proposed by D.S. Chernavsky and arms race model proposed by L.F. Richardson. The problem of evolution of the states is studied in a geographical space.

Fundamental equations of this work according to Chernavsky model are the following:

    ,

where the main variables  correspond to population of state i at point (x,y) of geographical space. The second fundamental equation is
       

It is based on Richardson’s arms race model. The variable  denotes resources consumed in struggle between the states i and j.
Important parameters of this model are  - factor of xenophobia and  - factor of internal expences of state. For one-dot model for different combinations of these two factors the plane has been constructed. Taking  and  as coordinate points of parametric space one can observe a distribution of regions corresponding to different states of the system: only one winner, co-existence, relaxing oscillation or increasing oscillation. The conclusion is that co-existence is possible and areas of co-existence have strict borders in parametric space.
Computer simulation of interaction of three states shows evolution of this system in real time. The result of simulation is that co-existence can be observed and this is not a trivial result. Initially competition model when never describes the state of co-existence. Another interesting result is that the system can describe oscillations of borders between states. It occurs when one small state helps in turn to one or another of the strong states. Such oscillations do not relax.
The model is to be developed further. We plan to add the factor of towns considering geographical space as a heterogeneous medium.

Geocivilizational Aspects of Psychological Characteristics of the World Nations
Daria A. Khaltourina, Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

International project "World Values" provides a unique opportunity to compare psychological characteristics of the world nations. The representative surveys of the world countries' populations took place every ten years. The questionnaires included several hundred questions on various sides of personal and social life.

The first waves of the survey took place in 1981 and involved developed countries only. A wider set of the countries was involved into the second and the third survey waves, which made the possible socio-psychological comparisons even more interesting.

We performed exploratory factor analysis (without rotation) of the aggregated variables of the 1991 wave. The analysis was made for a very large and diverse range of variables, and it did not make a lot of sense to interpret the resulting principal components (factors). However, one could see quite distinctively that the strongest factor loads were in the first and the strongest principal component for those variables that were related to religion; whereas those for the second strongest principal components were connected with happiness and life satisfaction. This shows the most prominent dimensions of the world nations' psychological differences .

At the next stage we produced Religiosity Index and Happiness Index by the means of factor analysis which involved only those variables directly related to religion and happiness / life satisfaction respectively. Interpreting these indices, one should remember that they are important only for comparison of level of religiosity and happiness in different countries, and that absolute index scores do not contain any meaning.

The distribution of these variables in the 1991 wave was characterized with pronounced geocivilizational vectors. Generally, religiosity is the strongest in the developing countries of the South. This indicator was much lower in the Northern, more modernized countries, with Ireland, Northern Ireland and the United States being exceptions.

Life satisfaction and happiness was generally higher in the Western countries, and the lowest percentage of happy and satisfied with life people lived in the former URRS, and, to a lower extent, in other post-socialist countries.

Thus, the distribution of the world countries in the two-dimensional space of these two indicators reflected the most important factors of sociopsychological attitude formation in the 20th century: modernization, which has lead to the secularization in the most developed countries, and dramatic processes of the formation and dissolution of the socialist block.

Diagram 1. The World Countries in the Two-Dimensional Space of Happiness Index and Religiosity Index in 1991 Wave

The same analysis was performed for the data of the 2001 wave. It turned out, that the pattern basically withstood despite the significant modification of the questionnaire: factor analysis distinguish the same parameters as the key one: religiosity / secularity and happiness / unhappiness. The survey included a greater number of the countries, and the general picture turned out to be more intriguing.
The countries of the South received greater score on religiosity index with Islamic countries taking the leadership together with the nations of Tropical Africa. Also rather high but a bit lower scores were ascribed to the Catholic countries and the USA. The least religious were traditionally Protestant, Confucian and the former socialist countries. Religiosity distribution of the 2001 wave generally replicates the result of the 1991 World Values wave. A greater number of the countries involved made it possible to see exceptionally high religiosity level for the Islamic countries and relatively high level for the Catholic ones.

Latin American countries and the countries of the West-European-type cultures (first of all, countries with North-European-type cultures, including Australia, New Zealand and the United States) demonstrated the greatest levels of happiness and life satisfaction. The least happy nations turned to be the populations of the CIS countries (unfortunately, the survey did not take place in the Central Asia), as well as those of Latvia, Bulgaria and Zimbabwe. It is quite interesting that the Islamic countries demonstrated not so high levels of happiness.

Exceptionally high levels of life dissatisfaction in Russia and culturally close countries is a rather striking result, as this region economically is not the most miserable one, despite some economic hardship.

One should take into account that happiness index can represent not only actual happiness but also the idea of the proper self-presentation. For example, it is well know that the Americans often reply "Fine" to the question "How are you?" automatically even if it is not quite so. However, the result of the wave 1991 shows that the response to the question "How happy you are?" correlates significantly with the statement that one feels depressed. This implies that respondents' self-response about their happiness reflect to large extent their actual happiness.
Another explanation is that both times the surveys were done right at the moment or shortly after the severe economic crises in the early 1990-es and in the year 1999. Finally, it is possible that the result simply reflects civilizational specifics of the regions.

Diagram 2. The World Countries in the Two-Dimensional Space of Happiness Index and Religiosity Index in 2001 Wave

Due to the map producing functions in SPSS 15, we were able to create the maps of the distribution of religiosity and happiness indices in the world.